Research Briefs
From time to time, I find myself investigating certain topics where my deep dive goes beyond what a blog post should be. These original research briefs are presented for two reasons:
- To explore a complex topic in greater detail that is relevant to understanding major issues confronting the Troy School District
- To provide prospective voters some insight into my thought process and the sorts of skills and thinking that I could bring to the Board
All interpretation and views shared in these briefs are my own; I do not speak for my employer on these issues of educational policy. I would further note that they are based on publicly available data.
Research Brief #1: The Relationship Between 3rd Grade ELA and Chronic Absenteeism in Troy (June 2025)
Link to Download: https://walt4tsd.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Research-Brief-for-Troy-Chronic-Absenteeism-and-3rd-Grade-Reading.pdf
In this research brief, I analyze two key issues that directly relate to two strategic objectives in my Strategic Plan: Improve Attendance and Restore Academic Excellence.
Specifically, I investigated the relationship between the decline in 3rd-grade English Language Arts (ELA) proficiency and the rise in K-5 chronic absenteeism in the Troy School District, particularly comparing pre- and post-COVID data. My analysis revealed that while 3rd-grade ELA scores saw a statistically significant drop of 6.0 percentage points from the pre-COVID average, the narrative of a continuous decline in the post-COVID years is not statistically supported. The data shows that what appears to be a trend is more likely statistical “noise” rather than a true secular decline.
A more significant finding is the dramatic and statistically significant increase in K-5 chronic absenteeism, which rose from a pre-COVID three-year average of 6.1% to a three-year average of 16.9% post-COVID. Using a fixed-effects regression model that controlled for various student characteristics across all Michigan districts, I established a causal link between these two trends. My model indicates that for every percentage point increase in chronic absenteeism, there is an approximate 0.5 percentage point decrease in 3rd-grade ELA proficiency. This suggests the 10.8 percentage point increase in chronic absenteeism is a primary driver of the observed drop in reading scores. I confirm this interpretation through a residual analysis that shows that about half of TSD’s underperformance on 3rd Grade ELA is due to chronic absenteeism.
Therefore, I argue that while concerns about curriculum are noted, the evidence more strongly points to the surge in chronic absenteeism as a major cause for the decline in 3rd-grade ELA performance. The cohort of students most affected by the virtual learning year during the pandemic also presents a significant factor. My recommendations focus on addressing the root causes of absenteeism through partnerships with community organizations land implementing a multi-tiered system of support, such as the one developed by Attendance Works, to help students and families overcome barriers to regular school attendance.
Research Brief #2: 2024-25 State Assessments Briefing Book (November 2025)
Link to Download: https://walt4tsd.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/25-11-26-2024-25-State-Assessment-Briefing-Book-for-TSD.pdf
In this briefing book, I examine the achievement gaps that frustrate the district’s attempts to Restore Academic Achievement to Pre-COVID Levels of Excellence.
I focus on three specific measures that the Michigan Department of Education (MDE) has identified for progress monitoring of at-risk students (Section 31a): 3rd grade ELA, 8th grade Math, and 11th grade College Readiness (defined as scoring “college ready” on both the EBRW and Math sections of the SAT).
For each measure, I provide:
- A high-level longitudinal analysis of trends presented with stacked bar charts of performance levels since 2018-19;
- The composition of assessed students since 2018-19 in tabular form;
- Stacked bar charts comparing the performance of students who are Economically Disadvantage, English Language Learner (ELL), or Students with Disabilities compared to their more advantaged peers since 2018-19;
- Stack bar charts comparing the performance of students by race/ethnicity; and
- Comparative analyses of the achievement gaps against peer districts (Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Novi, and Rochester) as well as Oakland County.
I find that:
- Proficiency rates in 3rd Grade ELA, 8th Grade Math, and 11th Grade College Readiness are all lower in 2024-25 than they were in 2018-19;
- Achievement gaps for vulnerable subgroups—specifically Students with Disabilities (SWD) and Economically Disadvantaged (ED) students—have largely widened over the last six years;
- In several metrics, TSD’s achievement gaps are now larger than those of peer districts and Oakland County averages; and
- A persistent disparity exists, with Asian and White students consistently outperforming Black and Hispanic peers by significant and growing margins.
I conclude by showing how much TSD has dropped since 2018-19 in both proficiency/readiness rates as well as state rankings for each of the three key measures. I conclude with an appeal for a more robust, psychometrically reliable and valid benchmark assessment.